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制高点-第6部分

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  民用航空局发言人:竞争是规则,所以消费者将得到比以往更好的服务。
  NARRATOR: Airline deregulation led to painful turbulence as new carriers came and went。 Like her father; Judith Hamill works in the airline industry。
  旁白:随着新航空公司的进入和推出,航空业取消管制引起了痛苦的振荡。Judith Hamill和她的父亲一样在航空业就职。
  JUDITH HAMILL; Administrator; Chicago O'Hare Airport: My dad was a jet mechanic with Braniff。 At the age of 59 he found that his skills were no longer desirable or needed。 When Braniff came back because of the duty to hire; he came back at half the salary that he had made before。 When you live by the rules and then the rules change; it's sad。
  JUDITH HAMILL,芝加哥O'Hare机场管理员:我父亲是布兰尼夫喷气飞机机师。59岁时他发现他的技术再也不需要了。当布兰尼夫因雇用义务而恢复的时候,他也回来了,但薪水只有以前的一半。当你靠规则生活而规则又发生变化的时候,那是很悲惨的。
  NARRATOR: But 20 years later; the industry was employing two times as many people to fly almost three times as many passengers。
  旁白:但是二十年后,这个行业的雇员是原来的两倍,乘客则几乎是原来的三倍。
  STEPHEN BREYER: The industry vastly underestimated the demand for airfares at lower prices; and what's happened is that as the prices went down; demand went up dramatically。
  STEPHEN BREYER:这个行业都大大低估了对低价飞机票的需求;结果,随着机票价格的下降,需求发生了引人注目的增加。
  ALFRED KAHN: And once they were free to pete; you began to get super…saver fares and super…apex fares and potato fares and peanuts fares …… an explosion of discounting and petition。 Well; those were dramatic。
  ALFRED KAHN:一旦他们可以自由竞争,你开始得到超级-救助者费、超级顶点费、马铃薯费和花生费-折扣和竞争的大爆炸。噢,这真是富有戏剧性。
  NARRATOR: The stage was set for deregulation of the ; and now these ideas were about to make their entrance in the very homeland of Gilbert and Sullivan。
  旁白:美国经济解除管制的舞台已经搭好了,现在这些想法将把他们送进吉尔伯特和沙利文真正的祖国。
  

Chapter 15: Thatcher Takes the Helm '3:50'
第十五章:撒切尔掌权
  Onscreen title: Britain; 1979
  字幕标题:英国,1979年
  WORKER: Well; 5 percent's no good to nobody; is it?
  工人:噢,5个百分点对某些人士有用的,是吗?
  INTERVIEWER: Do you think you can win this strike?
  采访者:你认为这次罢工会胜利吗?
  WORKER: Yes; I do。
  工人:是的,我这样认为。
  NARRATOR: They called it the Winter of Discontent。 It seemed as if everyone was on strike。
  旁白:他们把这个冬天称之为“不满的冬天”,好像每个人都在举行罢工。
  MAN: I think it stinks; like all the other damn strikes in this country run by the filthy Socialist munist unions。
  男人:我认为它讨厌透顶,就像这个国家里所有其他由肮脏的社会主义者共产主义者联盟发动的该死的罢工一样。
  NARRATOR: The garbage men were out。 So were the ambulances。 And if you died; the gravediggers were out; too。
  旁白:垃圾工人罢工;救护车罢工;即使你死了,挖墓者也罢工。
  NARRATOR: With the economy in apparently terminal decline; the people voted for a new Conservative government headed by Margaret Thatcher。
  旁白:由于经济显然处在恶化状态,人们投票选举了一位新的保守党政府首脑-玛格丽特。撒切尔。
  LAURENCE HAYEK : Margaret Thatcher was elected prime minister on the day of my father's birthday; so he sent her this telegram from Freiburg: ";Thank you for the best present to my 80th birthday that anyone could have given me。"; A few days later she wrote back from 10 Downing Street: ";Dear Professor Hayek; I am very proud to have learned so much from you over the past few years。 I am determined that we should succeed。 If we do so; your contribution to our ultimate victory will have been immense。 Yours sincerely; Margaret Thatcher。";
  LAURENCE HAYEK:玛格丽特。撒切尔在我父亲生日那天当选为首相,于是他从弗赖堡给她发了一份电报,电报上说:“谢谢你在我八十岁生日的时候给我送来了最好的生日礼物。”几天后她从唐宁街10号发来了回信:“亲爱的哈耶克教授,我为过去这些年来从你那里学到如此多的东西感到骄傲。我决心要取得成功。如果我们真的成功了,那么你对最终胜利的贡献将是巨大的。谨启,玛格丽特。撒切尔。”
  MARGARET THATCHER: And I'll strive unceasingly to try to fulfill the trust and confidence that the British people have placed in me and the things in which I believe。
  撒切尔夫人:我将继续奋斗以不辜负英国人民对我的信任和期望并实现我的信仰。
  NARRATOR: Determined; and some said strident; she would revolutionize the economy。
  旁白:她将坚定地,有人说是尖锐地,对经济进行大刀阔斧的改革。
  MARGARET THATCHER (interviewed in 1993): The spirit of enterprise had been sat upon for years by socialism; by too…high taxes; by too…high regulation; by too…public expenditure。 The philosophy was nationalization; centralization; control; regulation。 Now this had to end。
  撒切尔夫人(1993年采访):企业精神已经被社会主义、过高的税收、过强的管制和过分公用的支出压制了很多年。基本观点就是国有化、中央集权、控制和调节。现在,这一切都结束了。
  NARRATOR: Thatcher squeezed government spending and cut subsidies to business。 Thousands of bankruptcies and higher unemployment followed。 Many saw her as uncaring。 Britain had rarely been so divided。
  旁白:撒切尔减少政府支出,削减企业津贴。随之而来的是数千起破产和更高的失业率。许多人认为她缺乏同情心。英国很少存在如此大的分歧。
  CROWD OF PROTESTERS: Maggie; Maggie; Maggie。 Out; out; out!
  抗议的人群高声喊着:玛吉、玛吉、玛吉,出来、出来、出来!
  NARRATOR: Thatcher had no time for conventional; Keynesian economists who urged her to use government money to lessen the pain。
  旁白:撒切尔没有时间遵循常规了;凯恩斯主义的经济学家力劝她增加政府支出以缓解痛苦。
  MARGARET THATCHER: Although 364 economists wrote to the Times and said; ";This is outrageous; you'll put us into a deep depression from a recession;"; 364 were wrong; and the half dozen who supported us were right。
  撒切尔夫人:尽管有364位经济学家给《时代》杂志写信说:“这是无法容忍的;你将使我们因衰退而陷入深深的沮丧之中。”这364个人都错了,只有那六个支持我的人是对的。
  And those who urge us to relax the squeeze; to spend yet more money indiscriminately in the belief that we'll help the unemployed and the small businessman; are not being kind or passionate or caring。 I have only one thing to say: U…turn if you want to。 The lady's not for turning。
  那些力劝我增加支出,不分青红皂白地相信我们将帮助失业者和小型企业的人,并不是仁慈或者富于同情心或者人道的。我只有一件事要说:如果你想大转弯你就转,但这位女士不会转。
  NARRATOR: In Britain; the battle lines were drawn。 In America; the fight was already under way。
  旁白:在英国,斗争还在谋划;而在美国,战斗已经开始了。
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Chapter 16: Reagan Rides In '8:17'
第十六章:里根上台
  Onscreen title: USA; 1979
  字幕标题:美国,1979年
  NARRATOR: Things were at a low in the United States。 President Carter spoke of malaise and loss of confidence in the country。 Revolution in Iran had led to a second oil shock and Americans held hostage in Tehran。 Despite the beginning of deregulation; inflation was still at record heights。 Carter's attempts to follow Keynes's formula and spend his way out of trouble were going nowhere。
  旁白:美国一片衰败景象,卡特总统谈到国内存在的不安和信心丧失。伊朗革命引起第二次石油危机;美国人在德黑兰被扣为人质。尽管开始取消管制,通货膨胀率仍然创历史最高水平。卡特试图追随凯恩斯的方法来摆脱危机,但遭到了失败。
  LARRY LINDSEY; Assistant to the President for Economic Policy: Jimmy Carter was maybe the high point of Keynesian behavior。 And it simply was not working。
  LARRY LINDSEY,总统经济政策助理:吉米。卡特也许是最彻底地遵循凯恩斯主义者行动的,但是它就是不起作用。
  GEORGE SHULTZ: Toward the end of the Carter administration; with inflation out of control; Paul Volcker was made chairman of the Federal Reserve。 He understood the problems。
  GEORGE SHULTZ:在卡特总统的任期将要结束时,Paul Volcker成为美联储的主席,当时通货膨胀已经失控。他清楚当时的问题。
  JIMMY CARTER: I'm grateful to Paul Volcker for being willing now to accept the oath of office and the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve system of our country。 Paul?
  卡特:我很感谢Paul Volcker愿意在这个时候接受任命,负起我们国家联邦储备系统的责任,Paul?
  NARRATOR: Paul Volcker was steeped in the ideas of Austrian school economics。
  旁白:Paul Volcker深受奥地利经济学派的影响。
  PAUL VOLCKER; Federal Reserve Board; 1979…1987: It's obvious to all of you from what's been said today that we're face to face with really unique economic difficulties。
  PAUL VOLCKER;美联储,1979-1987年:从当前的舆论中可以很明显地看出我们正面临真正独特的经济困难。
  NARRATOR: Volcker believed that inflation was one of the worst of all economic evils。
  旁白:Volcker相信通货膨胀最糟糕的经济恶魔之一。
  PAUL VOLCKER: It came to be considered part of Keynesian doctrine that a little bit of inflation is a good thing。 And of course what happens then; you get a little bit of inflation; then you need a little more; because it peps up the economy。 People get used to it; and it loses its effectiveness。 Like an antibiotic; you need a new one; you need a new one。 Well; I certainly thought that inflation was a dragon that was eating at our innards; so the need was to slay that dragon。
  PAUL VOLCKER:有一点通货膨胀是好事情,这被认为什凯恩斯模式的一部分。当然那时候发生的事情是有一点通货膨胀,然后你还需要一点,因为这可以刺激经济。但是当人们已经习惯了的时候,这种方法就无效了。就像抗生素一样,你需要一种新的抗生素;以后你还会再需要其其它新的抗生素。噢,我当然认为通货膨胀是吞吃我们财富的恶龙,所以我们要做的就是杀死这条龙。
  NARRATOR: Volcker used a blunt weapon: He tightened the money supply。 The economy went into a nosedive。 Facing a presidential election; Carter was reluctant to back such harsh measures。
  旁白:Volcker使用了一件钝武器:他减少了货币供给。经济发展急剧减速。面临总统选举的卡特不情愿支持这么一项严厉的措施。
  Carter's rival was the Republican Ronald Reagan。 Reagan shared the same economic philosophy as Margaret Thatcher。 For over 20 years; he had been campaigning against the Keynesian orthodoxy and for Hayek and Friedman's ideas of free markets and freedom。
  卡特的对手是共和党人罗纳德。里根。里根与玛格丽特。撒切尔地经济观点一致。二十多年里他一直参加反对正统凯恩斯主义和支持哈耶克与弗里德曼关于自由市场和自由的观点的活动。
  NEWT GINGRICH; Speaker; ; 1995…1999: Reagan knew Hayek personally; he knew Milton Friedman personally。 And Reagan was; in a sense; their popularizer。 So he was the person who would take these people who were very profound but not very easy to municate。 I don't think you'd ever get Hayek on the Today show; but you could get Reagan explaining the core of Hayek with better examples and in more understandable language。
  NEWT GINGRICH,美国众议院议长,1995-1999年:里根认识哈耶克;他也认识米尔顿。弗里德曼。在某种意义上里根是他们的普及者。因此他就是那个推广这些造诣精神但不容易沟通者的思想的人。我想你不曾让哈耶克上今日节目,但你可以让里根用更好的例子和更易懂的预言来解释哈耶克思想的核心。
  RONALD REAGAN; ; 1981…1989: Vote for me; if you believe in yourself; if you believe in your right to control your own destiny and plan your own life; yes; and have a say in the spending of your own money。
  里根,美国总统,1981-1989年:如果你相信你自己,如果你坚信你掌握决定自己命运和规划自己生活的权力(是的,你对于如何花自己的钱有发言权),那么请投我一票。
  The president is going to have more government on the backs of the people and of business and of industry; the working people; in order to try to solve the problems that were created by too much government on our backs。
  为了解决太多的政府干预所造成的问题,总统将对人民、企业和行业进行更多的政府干预。
  We can get government off our backs; out of our pockets。 This kind of indifference to economic disaster must be ended; and it'll be ended by having a different kind of leadership。
  我们可以不受政府的干预;这种对经济灾难的漠不关心必须结束;可以通过一种完全不同的领导来结束它。
  NARRATOR: The American people voted for change; and Reagan became president。
  旁白:美国人投了变革的票,里根当选为总统。
  MILTON FRIEDMAN: The situation was this: The only way you could get the inflation down was by having monetary contraction。 There was no way you could do that without having a temporary recession。
  弗里德曼:形势是这样的:降低通货膨胀率的唯一方法是收紧银根,而这必然引起暂时的衰退。
  GEORGE SHULTZ: Obviously; who wants a recession? But I can remember President Reagan using those famous words: ";If not now; when? If not us; who?";
  GEORGE SHULTZ:很明显,谁希望经济衰退?但我记得里根总统那句著名的话:“如果不是现在,那是什么时候?如果不是我们,那是谁?”
  NARRATOR: Reagan offered Volcker his moral support in the fight against inflation。 As Volcker tightened the money supply; the economy slowed and contracted。 Unemployment hit 10 percent。 Nobody had realized quite how tough it would be。
  旁白:在与通货膨胀的斗争中里根为Volcker提供了道义上的支持。随着Volcker减少货币供给,经济开始减速和紧缩。失业率达到了10%。没有人意识到这将是多么困难的一件事。
  All across the heartland of America; ordinary people were hurting。
  整个美国的普通人都受到损害。
  DARREN SMITH; Farmer: Well; the interest rates; that just eats up your profit。 It bees very difficult to keep your business running right。 Nineteen eighties; the interest rates were up to 20 percent or better。 It was very interesting times。 I remember; you know; cash flows got very tight as things got tighter and tougher。 Creditors forced sales …… you know; ";e up with the cash or we're going to have to liquidate you。"; It's a hole that almost seems impossible that you can get out of。
  DARREN SMITH,农场主:噢,利率,吞噬了你的利润。保持企业正常运转变得非常困难。利率达到20%或者更高。这是一个非常有趣的时代。我记得,你知道,随着生意变得越来越无利可图和困难,现金流也越来越紧。债权人在施加压力-你知道,“拿出钱来,否则我们就清算你。”这看起来几乎是一个你不可能摆脱的困境。
  PAUL VOLCKER: If you had told me in August of 1979 that interest rates; the prime rate would get to ; I probably would have crawled into a hole。 I would have crawled into a hole and cried; I suppose。 But then we lived through it。 (laughs)
  PAUL VOLCKER:如果你在1979年8月告诉我利率,基本利率将达到,那么我可能已经陷入了困境。我想,我本应该已经陷入困境,在那里哭泣的。但是那时我们挺过来了。(笑)
  NARRATOR: It had taken three years …… three years of growing public anger; three years of real hardship for millions of Americans。 But by 1982; the dragon of inflation had been slain。
  旁白:这持续了三年-这三年是公众的愤怒情绪不断增强的时期,也是对数百万美国人来说真正困难的时期。但是到1982年的时候,通货膨胀这条恶龙已经被消灭了。
  PAUL VOLCKER: What changed drastically in the 1980s and running through today is the kind of presumption that inflation is bad。 The primary job of a central bank is to prevent inflation。 That's a very different environment than the '50s and '60s。
  PAUL VOLCKER:“通货膨胀是糟糕的事情";这个假定是经过八十年代的激烈变化确立的,并且一直使用到今天。中央银行的基本职责就是防止发生通货膨胀。这 与五十年代和六十年代的情况完全不同。
  ANNOUNCER: Ladies and gentlemen; the president of the United States。
  广播员:女士们、先生们,美国总统。
  NARRATOR: Reagan and Volcker had set the United States on a new economic course。
  旁白:里根和Volcker根据全新的经济路线改变了美国。
  RONALD REAGAN: From our very first day; we have been working to undo the economic wreckage they left behind。
  里根:从第一天开始,我们就在为解放他们留下的经济桎梏而工作。
  NARRATOR: They called his policy Reaganomics。 It had four key elements。
  旁白:他们把他的政策称之为里根经济政策,它包括四个关键要素。
  LARRY LINDSEY: The first was the concept of sound money。 The second was deregulation。 The third was modest tax rates。 And the fourth was limited government spending。 Sounds pretty conventional now; but when Reagan was elected; he was vilified by his opponents as being some radical extremist。
  LARRY LINDSEY:第一个是健全通货的概念;第二个是取消管制;第三个是合适的税率;第四个是限制政府支出。这些在现在看来是非常普通的,但当年里根却被他的对手辱骂为极端激进分子。
  RONALD REAGAN: They just can't accept that their discredited policies of tax and tax; spend and spend; are at the root of our current problems。
  里根:他们只是不能接受他们丧失了信用的税收和开支政策恰恰是通货问题的根源。
  NARRATOR: Reagan's tax cuts; the biggest in history; led to huge deficits。 But the economy started to grow steadily again。
  旁白:里根实行的历史上最大规模的减税导致了巨额财政赤字,但是经济开始再次稳步增长。
  MILTON FRIEDMAN: There's no doubt in my mind that those actions of Reagan; lowering tax rates; plus his emphasis on deregulating unleashed the basic constructive forces of the free market; and from 1983 on; it's been almost entirely up。
  弗里德曼:我毫不怀疑里根的那些措施-减税,再加上他强调取消管制,让自由市场基本的建设性力量发挥作用,所以从1983年至今,经济几乎一直在增长。
  

Chapter 17: War in the South Atlantic '1:41'
第十七章:南大西洋上的战争
  Onscreen title: Atlantic Ocean; 1982
  字幕:大西洋,1982年
  NARRATOR: Far away in the South Atlantic; a British expeditionary force was at sea。 Argentina had seized the Falkland Islands from Britain。 Margaret Thatcher risked a war to make the islands British once again。
  旁白:一支英国远征军正在南大西洋上航行。阿根廷已经从英国手中夺取了福克兰群岛,而玛格丽特。撒切尔冒着打仗的风险也要把福克兰群岛夺回来。
  Before the war her popularity was at rock bottom。 Victory in the Falklands ensured the survival of Margaret Thatcher's government。
  战争之前,她的声望已经跌至谷底,但是福克兰群岛的胜利使得玛格丽特?撒切尔的政府避免了垮台的厄运。
  CHARLES POWELL; Thatcher's Foreign Affairs Advisor; 1983…1991: The Falklands saved her。 The Falklands gave her a new lease on life to implement the policies on which she had embarked which were not yet producing results。 In effect; she gambled all on the Falklands; and she won decisively。 And that of course not only greatly bolstered her standing within the Tory Party; it bolstered her standing in the country; and it greatly enhanced her reputation internationally。
  查尔斯。鲍威尔(CHARLES POWELL),撒切尔的外交事务顾问,1983-1991年:福克兰群岛拯救了她。福克兰群岛使她得以继续实行她那还未产生结果的政策。事实上,她在福克兰群岛问题上孤注一掷,结果她毫无疑问地胜利了。这不但极大支持了她在保守党内部的声望,而且也支持了她在整个国家的声望;另外也提高了她的国际威望。
  NARRATOR: The Falklands War set her up politically to fight the final battle for the soul of the British economy。 The impact would be worldwide。
  旁白:福克兰群岛战争在政治上为她提供与英国经济核心进行最终决战的武器;这种影响是世界范围的。
  

Chapter 18: The Heights Go Up for Sale '8:08'
第十八章:出售制高点
  NARRATOR: In 1945; Attlee's Labor government had nationalized the manding heights of the economy; bringing core industries into state ownership。 For Thatcherites; these state industries were now the primary target。
  旁白:1945年,艾德礼的工党政府将经济的制高点国有化,把核心行业都收归国有。对撒切尔夫人的支持者来说这些国有企业是当前的主要目标。
  JOHN REDWOOD; Head of Prime Minister's Policy Unit; 1983…1985: A whole lot of people who were left of center thought that nationalization was Britain's great gift to the world; and one of my phrases
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