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制高点-第8部分
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the West。
旁白:苏联的中央计划体制意味着克里姆林宫(Kremlin)控制着经济的方方面面,其目的是使得苏联强大起来,并自给自足。苏联变成了一个工业巨人,一个军事上的超级大国,并成为了西方世界的一个威胁。
GEORGE SHULTZ; ; 1982…1989: Russia looked very formidable。 The essence of Soviet power was its ballistic missiles。 They could wipe out any country in the world in 30 minutes' time。 So that's a lot of power。
美国国务聊(1982…1989)乔治。舒尔茨(George Shultz), 1982…1989:苏联看起来非常强大,苏联实力的关键是它的弹道导弹。它们能够在30分钟内摧毁世界上的任何国家,那是很强的实力。
MARGARET THATCHER; British Prime Minister; 1979…1990: munism was gaining the world over; gaining by its main methods; military threat from military might。
英国首相(1979…1990)玛格丽特。撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher),1979…1990:共产主义通过其主要手段——由强大的军事力量所造成的军事威胁,正在赢得整个世界。
CHARLES POWELL; British Foreign Affairs Advisor; 1983…1991: We all thought the Soviet Union was still a vast powerful economy; a huge military power; a threat to world peace; determined to extend its influence around the world。
英国外交事务顾问(1983…1991)查尔斯。鲍威尔(Charles Powell),1983…1991:我们大家当时都认为苏联仍然是一个经济大国,一个军事大国,一个对世界和平的威胁,它决心要在全世界范围内扩大其影响力。
NARRATOR: Soviet influence was everywhere in Eastern Europe; in Africa; and Latin America。 Socialism; planning; state control; government ownership …… these became the gospel。 In Asia; the apparent success of munist China seemed to show the way。
旁白:苏联的影响随处可见:在东欧,在非洲和拉丁美洲国家,社会主义、计划、国家控制、政府所有权——这些成了真理。在亚洲,共产主义中国的胜利似乎也印证了这一现象。
But the truth about the Soviet economy lay concealed behind the ";Iron Curtain。";
但是苏联经济的真正事实却隐蔽在“铁幕”背后。
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Chapter 3: Behind the iron Fa?ade '8:18'
第3章: 铁幕背后
Onscreen title: The Iron Curtain
字幕标题:铁幕
NARRATOR: Minefields; barbed wire; searchlights; and lookout towers sealed the Soviet bloc off from the outside world。
旁白:地雷区、铁丝网、探照灯,以及了望塔,这些把苏联封闭起来与外部世界隔绝了。
In the 1980s British intelligence recruited a Russian double agent to penetrate this wall of secrecy。 But Soviet intelligence; the KGB; became suspicious and put him under house arrest。
80年代,英国情报部门收买了一名苏联双重间谍,企图渗入这一秘密封锁墙。但是苏联的情报部门,克格勃(KGB),怀疑到了这名间谍,并将其软禁起来。
News reached London that its top spy was in mortal danger。
消息传到伦敦,其最好的间谍受到了生命威胁。
Charles Powell was foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher。
查尔斯。鲍威尔(Charles Powell)是玛格丽特。撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)首相的的外交政策顾问。
CHARLES POWELL: The news of the intention to spring him came to me in Downing Street。 I couldn't tell anyone else because no one else knew about it。
查尔斯。鲍威尔(Charles Powell):我在唐宁街(Downing Street)听到了要试图营救他的消息,我无法对任何人讲起,因为没有其他人知道这件事。
NARRATOR: It was so sensitive that Powell needed the prime minister's personal approval to activate an escape plan。
旁白:这件事太敏感,鲍威尔需要首相的亲自批准,来实施一个营救计划。
CHARLES POWELL: Oleg Gordievsky was perhaps the most valuable agent; because he understood the Soviet system from inside。
查尔斯。鲍威尔(Charles Powell):奥列格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky)可能是最有价值的间谍,因为他了解苏联的内部体制。
NARRATOR: In Moscow; the net was closing in on Oleg Gordievsky。
旁白:在莫斯科(Moscow),营救奥列格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky)的网收紧了。
OLEG GORDIEVSKY; KGB Defector: At that time I decided to use my secret longstanding plan of escape。 I sent a signal to the British intelligence。
克格勃叛员奥赖格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky):那时我决定实施我秘密的,策划已久的逃亡计划,我向英国情报部门发出了讯号。
NARRATOR: Gordievsky evaded his KGB watchers and made his way to a forest near the Finnish border。
旁白:戈德尔维斯基(Gordievsky)躲开了克格勃的监视,来到了芬兰边境的一个森林。
OLEG GORDIEVSKY: In the morning; I started to move toward the site in the woods; and there I waited。 I waited for the arrival of car; driven by two British people who picked me up; put me in the boat; and drove to the border。 It was a very small car; a very small boat。
奥列格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky):早晨,我开始向树林中的预定地点进发,并在那里等,等汽车的到来,两个英国人开着车接上了我,然后我们上了一艘小船,到了边境。那是一辆非常小型的汽车,船也很小。
On the border; we started to stop。 One stop。 Second stop。 Third stop。
到了边境后,我们试图靠岸,一次、二次、三次。
NARRATOR: They were approaching the moment of maximum danger。
旁白:最危险的时刻到了。
OLEG GORDIEVSKY: The KGB and Soviet customs checks of the cars。 I heard the voices。 I heard even the KGB dogs barking。 And to my great luck; it went without any accident。
奥列格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky):克格勃和苏联海关在盘查着过往的车辆,我听到了声音,甚至能听到克格勃的军犬在叫。幸运的是,我们顺利地过了关,没有遇到麻烦。
NARRATOR: But one of the British agents; a woman; threw the guard dogs off the scent by feeding them potato chips。
旁白:但是一名英国女间谍的香水味引起了军犬的注意,她扔了一些土豆片才摆脱了它。
Three days later; Gordievsky was in London and the debriefings began。
三天后,戈德尔维斯基(Gordievsky)到了伦敦,情报汇报开始了。
OLEG GORDIEVSKY: When I was a British agent inside the KGB; the British intelligence service didn't have time to ask me about economy; because they were interested about strategic problems。 The arms…control questions were so overwhelming; the West neglected the important foundation of the argument: the economy。
奥列格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky):当我是克格勃内部的一名英国间谍时,英国情报部门没有工夫问我有关苏联经济方面的情况,他们只对战略性的问题感兴趣,武器控制问题是压倒一切的,西方世界忽视了问题最重要的基础:经济。
NARRATOR: Gordievsky told his British spymasters that the Soviet Union was under great pressure; devoting more than a third of its entire economy to military spending。
旁白:戈德尔维斯基(Gordievsky)告诉他的英国间谍首脑,苏联正在承受着巨大的压力,它将整个经济的三分之一以上投入到了军事开支上。
OLEG GORDIEVSKY: And the analyst said no; I can't put such a huge figure down because nobody would believe it。 Later; economists realized that the Soviet Union had been spending at least 50 percent on the military。
奥列格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky):分析家们说,不,我不能写下这么巨大的数字,因为没有人会相信。后来,经济学家们意识到,苏联一直在花费至少50%的经济实力用于军事。
CHARLES POWELL: Gordievsky's information was shared with President Reagan and the Americans; and he was able to play; behind the scenes; a role of extraordinary influence。
查尔斯。鲍威尔(Charles Powell):我们把戈德尔维斯基(Gordievsky)提供的信息提供给里根(Regan)总统,提供给美国人,从而使得戈德尔维斯基(Gordievsky)在幕后产生了非常大的影响。
NARRATOR: Thanks to Gordievsky's intelligence; Western leaders realized that Soviet military might rested on a crumbling economy。
旁白:得益于戈德尔维斯基(Gordievsky)的情报,西方领导人认识到苏联强大的军事力量是以经济的行将崩溃为代价的。
OLEG GORDIEVSKY: The munist administration reported that the economy was growing。 It was not the case。 The economy started to go down all the time; and the deficit was covered only with the help of the oil prices。 And the extra money made it possible to claim that they were successful。 And they were deceiving the world。
奥列格。戈德尔维斯基(Oleg Gordievsky):共产党政府报告说经济在增长,然而这不是事实,苏联经济开始全面下滑,巨额赤字只有靠石油的价格勉强维系,而得益于石油价格多出来的钱使得他们可以宣称他们是成功的。他们在欺骗整个世界。
NARRATOR: Soviet satellites circled the world; and nuclear submarines prowled the oceans。 But after seven decades of munism; the real story of the Soviet economy was one of empty shelves and a standard of living that was a fraction of Western Europe's。
旁白:苏联的社会主义兄弟国家遍布全球,其核潜艇在各大洋游弋。但是在实行了70年的共产主义之后,苏联经济的真实故事呈现在人们面前,到处是空货架,人们的生活水平远低于西欧国家。
GRIGORY YAVLINSKY; Economic Reformer: Soviet economy was neither nor。 It was not a Stalinist economy anymore; but it was not a market economy; so it was no water; no fire。 It was a mess。
经济改革家格里格利。叶维林斯基(Grigory Yavlinsky):苏联经济是两不象,既不再是斯大林主义的经济,也更谈不上市场经济,不是水,也不是火,一团糟。
NARRATOR: An independent…minded young economist; Grigory Yavlinsky; wrote a report on why workers in state mines were so unproductive。
旁白:一位年轻的中立派经济学家,格里格利。叶维林斯基(Grigory Yavlinsky),撰写了一份报告,研究了为什么在国有矿山中,工人们如此没有效率。
GRIGORY YAVLINSKY: The people don't want to work。 The people have no incentives。 The economy inside which the people have no incentives have no future。 So you can do two things: Take a gun and put this gun to his head like it was at the Stalin's time; or you have to give him incentives; because he wants to improve the life of his family; and he can't。
格里格利?叶维林斯基(Grigory Yavlinsky):人们没有任何激励,不愿意工作。在一个经济体系中,如果人们得不到有效的激励,那么这个经济体系就是没有前途的,所以你们只能做两件事:要么拿起枪架在人们脑袋上逼他们劳动,就像斯大林时代那样,要么给他们激励,因为他们想提高其家庭的生活水平而又不能。
NARRATOR: Factory managers at Norilsk could see the economy was not working; because the workers were not working。
旁白:诺里尔斯克(Norilsk)的工厂管理人员们可以看到,经济没有在良好地运行着,因为工人们没有好好工作。
VALERY KOVALCHUK; Former Norilsk Factory Manager: You can't work properly under socialism。 There is no incentive。 And sadly; that's the only thing that gets us going。 People e to work and just go through the motions。 They doze off; read papers; do the crosswords。 The state goes on paying them; the state gets poorer; the people get corrupted; then bankruptcy。 And that's what happened …… the collapse of a great empire。
前诺里尔斯克制造厂(Norilsk Factory)经理维拉里。科维尔什克(Valery Kovalchuk):在社会主义制度下, 人们无法正常工作,因为没有激励。而令人伤心的是,这是唯一可以让我们动起来的动力。人们上班只是做做样子混日子,他们上班时间打瞌睡,看报纸,猜字谜,而国家要继续照常支付他们薪水,国家越来越穷,人们越来越腐化,然后整个体系破产了,这就是我们所看到的——伟大帝国的坍塌。
Chapter 4: India’s Permit Raj '3:04'
第四章: 印度的许可统治
Onscreen title: New Delhi; India
字幕标题:印度,新德里
NARRATOR: Like the Soviet Union; India had used central planning to industrialize its peasant economy and conquer poverty。 Now India; like government…dominated economies all over the world; was running into difficulty。
旁白:与苏联一样,印度也试图采用中央计划的方式来实现其农业经济的工业化进程,并希望消除贫困。而现在,像世界上其他政府主导经济一样,印度也陷入了困境。
YASHWANT SINHA; Indian Finance Minister: The government of India went into business in a big way; and they decided to control whatever was there in the private sector also as firmly and fiercely as they could。
印度财政部长YASHWANT SINHA:印度政府对经济的渗透程度很深,政府决定要尽可能严格和牢固地控制私人部门的一切事务。
NARRATOR: The British raj was gone。 Now people were subjected to the ";Permit Raj;"; because everything needed a government permit。 India became a byword for red tape and bureaucracy。 Businessmen found it almost impossible to get things done。
旁白:英国对印度的统治已经结束了,而印度人又遭受了“许可统治”,因为事无巨细,都必须要经过政府许可。印度成了官僚作风盛行的一个代名词,商人们发现要在印度开展业务几乎是不可能的。
NARAYANA MURTHY; Chairman; Infosys Technologies: It used to take us about 12 to 24 months and about 50 visits to Delhi to get a license to import a puter worth 1;500。
Infosys Technologies公司主席NARAYANA MURTHY:要进口一台价值1500美元的计算机,通常要花费我们12到24个月的时间及大约50人次到新德里去跑批文。
NARRATOR: Since it was impossible to work with the system; people learned to work around it。
旁白:由于无法改变这样的体制,人们开始学会各种各样的变通方法。
P。 CHIDAMBARAM; Indian Finance Minister; 1996…1998: Every license; every permit; was procured by corrupt means。
印度财政部长(1996…1998) P。 CHIDAMBARAM:每张执照,每个许可证都是通过腐败的行为获得的。
INTERVIEWER: A bribe?
记者:您是指贿赂?
P。 CHIDAMBARAM: Well; ";bribe"; is the simpler word; I suppose。
P。 CHIDAMBARAM:哦,我想“贿赂”还只是较轻的字眼。
NARRATOR: Self…sufficiency was India's ideal。 To protect its own manufacturing industry; India shut out foreign imports。
旁白:自给自足是印度的理想,为保护它自己的制造业,印度禁止从国外进口。
P。 CHIDAMBARAM: Because of this protected market; the Indian people were being given shoddy goods and services at very high prices。 Enterprise was stifled; and growth was crippled。
P。 CHIDAMBARAM:由于这样的保护性市场,印度人只能以高昂的价格获得低等的商品和服务,企业缺乏生机,经济增长陷入泥潭。
JAIRAM RAMESH; Indian Government Advisor; 1991…1998: The economic environment was simply not conducive to efficiency or profitability。 We were in a shortage economy。 My father waited 15 years to buy a car。
印度政府顾问(1991…1998)JAIRAM RAMESH:很明显,经济环境不利于提高效率和盈利,我们是一个短缺经济。我父亲买一辆汽车排队等了15年时间。
NARRATOR: Take India's beloved Ambassador car。 It is made by Hindustan Motors; which started manufacturing in the same year as Japan's Toyota。 Fifty years later; Toyota makes five million cars a year。 Hindustan sells 18;000 Ambassadors; and still to the same design。
旁白:以印度最受欢迎的“大使” (Ambassador)牌汽车为例,这款汽车是由印度汽车公司(Hindustan Motors)制造的,与日本的丰田(Toyota)同时期投入的生产,50年后,丰田(Toyota)公司年产汽车500万辆,而印度汽车公司(Hindustan Motors)的年销量只有18000辆,而且款式设计仍然与50年前一样。
MANMOHAN SINGH; Finance Minister; 1991…1996: If you have a controlled economy; cut off from the rest of the world by infinite protection; nobody has any incentive to; in a way。。。 nobody has any incentive to increase productivity; to bring new ideas。
财政部长(1991…1996) 买买汗。辛格(Manmohan Singh):在管制经济中,通过一系列无穷无尽的保护,把自己与外部世界隔绝开来,这样的环境下,没有人会有动力,某种程度上来说…没有人有任何的动力来提高生产率,提供新思路。
NARRATOR: Overprotected; over…administered; overplanned; the Permit Raj was quite literally a brake on the Indian economy。
旁白:过度保护,过度管制,过度计划,许可统治已经明显地成为了印度经济的一个障碍。
Chapter 5: Latin American Dependencia '2:03'
第五章: 拉丁美洲的依赖
Onscreen title: Latin America
字幕标题:拉丁美洲
NARRATOR: In Latin America; radically different leaders shared India's suspicion of the world economy。 In the 1940s and '50s; it was Juan Peron and his wife; Evita。 In the 1960s; it was munist Cuba's charismatic Fidel Castro。 And in the 1970s; it was Chile's Marxist president Salvador Allende。
旁白:在拉丁美洲,一些根本不同的领导人也怀有印度的那种对世界经济的猜疑。在40和50年代,是Juan Peron及其妻子Evita,60年代是古巴共和国的代表人物费德尔。卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro),70年代是智利的马克思主义总统萨尔瓦多。阿兰德(Salvador Allende)。
Though rich in raw materials; Latin America seemed doomed to perpetual poverty。 The dependency theory of economic development seemed to offer a way out。
尽管自然资源丰富,但拉丁美洲却似乎注定长期贫穷,经济发展的依赖理论似乎能够提供一条出路。
DANIEL YERGIN: The dependency theory said that if you want to get high economic growth in your country; what you need to do is put up barriers; tariffs that restrict the flow of import into the country; develop and build your own domestic industries; and that if you don't do that; you're going to be victimized by world trade。
丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):依赖理论认为,假如你想在你的国家实现高速的经济增长,你必须做的是要建立贸易障碍,设立贸易关税,来限制商品的进口,而发展自己的国内工业体系,如果你不这样做,则你将成为世界贸易的受害者。
The theory was very attractive。 It said you would develop on your own; and you would be more self…sufficient。 The reality is that you cut yourself off from flows of technology; flows of investment; from flows of know…how; and instead of getting ahead you were falling back。
这个理论非常有吸引力,这个理论说你能仅依靠自己的力量而获得发展,你将会更加自给自足。而事实是,你把你自己与技术流动、资本流动和知识流动隔离了开来,你不但没有取得进步,而且还倒退了。
MOISES NAIM; Editor; Foreign Policy Magazine: Because they are not threatened by petition; you create very lazy; nonpetitive panies that produce not very good goods at higher prices。 It may create jobs here and there; but in the long term it may create even more poverty。
《对外政策》(Foreign Policy)杂志编辑莫伊斯。尼曼(Moises Naim):由于没有竞争的威胁,企业将变得非常懒散,缺乏竞争力,会以高昂的价格生产低质量的产品,这种体制可能会创造一些工作机会,但是从长远来看,它会导致更多的贫困。
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Chapter 6: Counterrevolution in Chile '3:30'
第六章: 智利的反革命
Onscreen title: Santiago; Chile
字幕标题:智利,圣地亚哥
NARRATOR: By the early 1970s; Latin American economies were in trouble。 Chile elected the Marxist president Salvador Allende。 Allende's solution was not less government intervention; but more。 Businesses were nationalized or expropriated。 Price controls were imposed。 Civil unrest grew as the economy spun out of control。
旁白:到70年代初,拉丁美洲经济陷入了困境,智利选举马克思主义者萨尔瓦多。阿兰德(Salvador Allende)为总统。阿兰德的措施不是减少而是进一步加强政府的干预,把企业收归国有或者是没收,实施价格控制。经济衰退失控,国内###也随之而来。
RICARDO LAGOS; President; Chile: We have a tremendous inflation。 Chilean society became extremely polarized。 It's true it was polarized before Allende; but during Allende's period the society was extremely polarized。
智利总统里卡多。罗格斯(Ricado Lagos):通货膨胀非常严重,智利社会矛盾极端激化。在阿兰德(Allende)之前就已经激化了是事实,但在阿兰德时期则激化到了顶峰。
NARRATOR: It all ended in a military coup。 As air force jets straffed the presidential palace; Allende was trapped inside。 This was the last picture taken of him alive。
旁白:一场军事政变才结束了这一切,当空军喷气式飞机轰炸总统府时,阿兰德(Allende)被围困在其中,这是他生前留下的最后一幕。
Allende supporters; union leaders; and left…wing students were rounded up in the national football stadium。 Hundreds were never seen again。
阿兰德(Allende)的拥护者们,大批工会领导及左翼学生们围住国家足球场,成百上千的人丧命于此。
Chile's military junta was led by Gen。 Augusto Pinochet。 Many middle…class Chileans saw him as a savior。
智利的军事政权由皮诺切特(Gen。 Augusto Pinochet)领导,许多智利的中产阶级都视他为救世主。
JAVIER VIAL; President; Association of Banks; 1973: I think that Pinochet's plan was basically the plan to manage an army。 He didn't have an economic policy to manage a country。
银行协会(Association of Banks)董事长(1973)贾威尔。维拉(Javier Vial):我认为皮诺切特的计划本质上是一个管理军队的计划,他没有管理国家的经济政策。
ARNOLD HARBERGER; Professor Emeritus; University of Ch
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