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制高点-第11部分

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需解决,你还只是涉及到问题的皮毛。这个国家需要一次彻底的修整,我们要度过我们正在经历的各种难关。”我当时不明白他是否是有意戏弄我,是否是在跟我开玩笑,是否是认真的,是否知道他在干什么,后来才知道,他就是孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔——一个天才。
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Chapter 11: Shock Therapy Applied '4:48'
第十一章: 休克疗法的应用
  NARRATOR: Goni's party did win the election; and he became minister of planning。 He told the president that Bolivia was running out of time。
  旁白:孔塞洛的政党的确在选举中获得了胜利,他出任计划部部长,他告诉总统,###的时间是很有限的。
  JUAN CARIAGA: We told him; ";You have 90 days before Bolivia's hyperinflation bees the highest inflation in world history。"; So he told us; ";Okay; you have 20 days; you have to start working now。";
  胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):我们告诉他,“再过90天,###的通货膨胀率就要变成历史上最高的恶性通货膨胀率了,”他告诉我们,“好吧,我给你们20天的时间,你们必须从现在起就开始工作。”
  GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: There was a big discussion whether you could stop a hyperinflation or an inflation period by taking gradualist steps。 In this Jeff Sachs was influential。 He said: ";All this gradualist stuff just doesn't work。 When it really gets out of control you've got to stop it; like a medicine。 You've got to take some radical steps; otherwise your patient is going to die。";
  孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo  Sanchez De Lozada):对于能否采用一个渐进的步骤来终止恶性通货膨胀或一般的通货膨胀的问题,我们进行了大规模的讨论。在这方面,杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)是很有影响力的,他说:“所有这些渐进的措施都是无用的,当事情真的无法控制时,你必须制止它,像打针吃药一样,你必须采用一些激进的措施,否则你的病人便会死去。”
  NARRATOR: To avoid leaks; they worked at home。 Every few days; Goni reported to the president。
  旁白:为防止出现纰漏,他们都在家中工作。每隔几天,孔塞洛就要向总统汇报一次。
  GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: We said: ";Look; boys; you've got one chance。 And remember; as Machiavelli said; 'It's all the bad news at once; the good news little by little。'"; So he said; ";Get it all done。"; Shock therapy is get it over; get it done; stop hyperinflation; and then start rebuilding your economy so you achieve growth。
  孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo  Sanchez De Lozada):我们讲:“好吧,孩子们,你们只有一次机会,记住,正像马基雅弗利(Machiavelli)所说的那样‘坏消息总是一下子都来了,而好消息则只会一点一点地来’。”于是他说,“开始行动吧。”休克疗法就是终止这场恶性通货膨胀,重建你们的经济,使你们重新获得增长。
  NARRATOR: In August 1985; Goni went public with a program called ";shock therapy。";
  旁白:1985年8月,孔塞洛宣布实行一个被称为“休克疗法”的项目。
  JUAN CARIAGA: It caught everybody by surprise。 It had great credibility。 It was a shock。
  胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):这使得所有人都大吃一惊。它的可信度很高。太不可思议了。
  NARRATOR: Shock therapy spelled the death of dependency theory。 Government spending was slashed。 Price controls were scrapped。 Import tariffs were cut。 Government budgets were balanced。
  旁白:休克疗法宣告了依赖理论的死亡,政府开支被大量缩减,价格控制被废弃,进口关税大大降低,政府预算平衡了。
  JUAN CARIAGA: We didn't use highly sophisticated economic theory to deal with hyperinflation。 We just used very simple things; such as from now on the government will only spend what it gets。 You get one peso; spend one peso; you get two pesos; spend two pesos。 If we don't have it; we don't spend it。 No borrowing from the Central Bank; and therefore the Central Bank did not have to print money。
  胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):我们并没有采用什么高深的经济学理论来对付通货膨胀,我们使用的只是一些简单的手段,比如,从现在起政府只能量入为出,有一比索才能花一比索,有两比索才能花两比索,没有就别花,不允许从中央银行借款,所以中央银行就不必印钞票了。
  NARRATOR: Shock therapy meant that the price of essentials …… transport; food; fuel …… all shot up。 Until then people had thought that only a military dictatorship like Chile's could impose such tough measures without tearing society apart。
  旁白:休克疗法意味着一些必需品——比如交通、食品、燃料——的价格大幅上扬。那时,人们认为只有像智利那样的军政府才有能力在不分裂社会的前提下执行如此激进的措施。
  DANIEL YERGIN: Bolivia may be a small country; but it had a very big impact in terms of kick…starting reform throughout Latin America。 In Brazil; a professor; who actually used to teach the dependency theory; launched a program of economic reform that looked a lot like shock therapy。
  丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):###是一个小国,但是它在作为引发整个拉丁美洲改革方面却具有非常大的影响。在巴西,一位曾经教授依赖理论的教授,发起了一个看起来非常像休克疗法的经济改革项目。
  DANIEL YERGIN: Argentina was suffering from 20;000 percent inflation and the new president of that country said; you know; we've seen this movie before。
  丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):阿根延正遭遇着20,000%的通货膨胀率。新任总统说,你知道,我们原来从电影中看到过这种场面。
  DOMINGO CAVALLO; Economy Minister; Argentina; 2001: Pro…market reforms could be implemented under a democracy; and we demonstrated that it was possible here in Argentina。
  阿根廷经济部长(2001)多明戈。卡菲罗(Domingo Cavallo):支持市场化的改革可以在民主社会中实行,我们要证明,在阿根廷也可以。
  NARRATOR: All across Latin America; governments began to sit up and take notice。
  旁白:整个拉丁美洲的政府都开始密切关注了。
  GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: I think the Bolivian experience did have influence。 The fact that we did it in democracy; we did it without great social violence; had impact on economic thinkers and on politicians。
  孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo  Sanchez De Lozada):我认为###的经历的确很有影响力,我们通过民主的方式改革,没有引起大的社会###的事实对经济学家和政治家们有很大的影响。
  JEFFREY SACHS: In late 1985; as we were struggling late into the night with a problem; he said; ";You know; this is extraordinarily hard; but what's happening here; this is going to have to happen all through Latin America。"; I watched it unfold; one country after another。
  杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):1985年末,一天,我们为一个问题工作到深夜时,他说:“你知道,这的确是非常难,但是在这里发生的一切,将会在整个拉丁美洲发生。”我看到这应验了,在一个接一个的国家应验了。
  NARRATOR: It is a curious fact of history that what happened in Bolivia was to have a direct impact on the frozen economies of Eastern Europe。
  旁白:在###发生的事情给死气沉沉的东欧经济带来了直接的冲击,这在历史上是很不寻常的。
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Chapter 12: The Miracle Year '6:57'
第十二章: 神奇的一年
  JEFFREY SACHS: I was approached by a Polish government official who had watched the Bolivian reforms; and then had seen the work I had done in Argentina and Brazil。 He finally asked me would I go to Poland and help。
  杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):一位波兰政府官员找到了我,他看到了###的改革,然后他了解了我在阿根廷和巴西进行过的工作,他最后问我是否能到波兰去帮助他们解决问题。
  Onscreen title: Warsaw; Poland
  字幕标题:波兰,华沙
  The Poles themselves feared that they were descending into starvation。 The shops were utterly empty for miles。 I would see a woman just standing on the street sobbing: ";There's no milk in this city。 I can't find any milk for my child。 What am I going to do?"; It was terrifying。
  波兰自己很担心会倒退,会出现饥荒。方圆几英里内的商店都彻底空了,我可以看见一个妇女站在街中间哭泣:“整个城市都买不到牛奶,我的孩子没有牛奶喝,我该怎么办啊?”这很可怕。
  NARRATOR: Sachs arrived on the very day that roundtable talks agreed there should be free elections in Poland。
  旁白:在圆桌会议同意在波兰进行自由选举的当天,萨克斯(Sachs)来到了波兰。
  LECH WALESA: The situation was more than dramatic。 One can change a political system overnight; but an economic system needs years。
  莱克。瓦文萨(Lech Walesa):这种情况太戏剧性了,人们可以一夜之间改变政治体制,但要改变经济体制却要花很多年。
  DANIEL YERGIN: Whenever Soviet power was challenged in Eastern Europe; the response was very clear。 It was tanks; it was the Red Army。 That was the case in Berlin in 1953; Budapest in 1956; Prague 1968。 But the answer was different in Warsaw in 1989。 Solidarity won 99 out of 100 seats。 The head of the Polish munist Party called Moscow for directions。 Mikhail Gorbachev's answer was stunning: ";Do nothing; accept the oute of a free election。"; And that was really the phone call that ended the Cold War。 And of course; the great symbol of the end of the Soviet empire was the fall of the Berlin Wall。 One country after another broke free of munism …… Poland; Hungary; Czechoslovakia; Romania。 1989 was truly a miracle year。
  丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):以前,在东欧,如果有谁胆敢挑战苏联强权的话,那结果再清楚不过了,必定是坦克、红军都一起来了。1953年的柏林、1956年的布达佩斯、1968年的布拉格都是这样。但1989年华沙的这次不同了,团结工会获得了99%的席位,波兰共产党的领导人向打电话给苏联寻求指示,戈尔巴乔夫的回答令人震惊:“什么都不要做,接受自由选举的结果吧。”正是这个电话结束了长期的冷战,当然,苏维埃帝国崩溃更具代表性的事件是柏林墙的倒塌。一个接一个的国家从共产主义中解放出来—波兰,匈牙利,捷克斯洛伐克,罗马尼亚。1989年真是奇迹的一年。
  NARRATOR: Poland was free now。 Solidarity had to liberate the Polish economy。 Late one night Sachs met the Solidarity economist Jacek Kuron in a Warsaw apartment。
  旁白:波兰现在自由了,团结工会不得不解放波兰的经济。一天晚上萨克斯(Sachs)在华沙的一所公寓里会见了团结工会的经济学家杰西卡。库勒(Jacek Kuron)。
  JEFFREY SACHS: I was trying to explain how you get out of this mess that the munist system had left behind。 Every couple of minutes he would pound on the table; ";Pah; pah; pah"; …… ";Yes; yes; yes; I understand。"; And we'd gone on …… ";Pah; pah"; …… and it was very; you know。。。 it was really exciting。 We went on for a few hours like this。 I was exhausted。 The room was filled with smoke; and he said: ";Okay; clear。 Write up the plan。"; We got up。 I said: ";Well; this will be a great honor。 We'll send you something just as soon as we can。"; ";No; tomorrow morning I need the plan。"; I laughed; and he said; ";I'm absolutely serious; I need this written down now。";
  杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):我努力地跟他讲如何收拾共产主义体制丢下的烂摊子。每隔两分钟,他就拍一次桌子,“是,是,是”——“对,对,对,我明白”,我们一直谈,——“对,对”——这真的,真的很令人激动,我们像这样谈了好几个小时,我精疲力竭,房间里充满了烟雾,他说,“好吧,搞清楚了,写出计划吧。”我们从椅子上站起身来,我说:“这将是我很大的荣幸,我们将尽快给你一些结果。”“不,明天早上我就需要这个计划。”我笑了,他说,“我是认真的,我需要现在就开始干。”
  We wrote up a plan that night and delivered it the next morning。 They distributed it to the Solidarity members of the Parliament。
  我们当夜就写出了一份计划,第二天早上就提交上去了,他们把这份计划分发给国会中的团结工会成员。
  NARRATOR: Like Sachs; Solidarity's new finance minister; Leszek Balcerowicz; believed transition had to be rapid and massive。
  旁白:与萨克斯(Sachs)一样,团结工会的新财政部长拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz)也认为行动必须迅速和重大。
  LESZEK BALCEROWICZ; Finance Minister; Poland; 1989…1991: Just after breakthrough; there is a short period; a period of extraordinary politics。 By definition; people are ready to accept more radical solutions because they are pretty euphoric of freshly regained freedom。 One could use it only in one way; by moving forward very; very quickly。
  波兰财政部长(1989…1991)拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz):在团结工会取得突破上台后,有一段非常短的非常政治时期,这段时间里,人民已经作好了接受激进解决方案的准备,因为他们正沉浸在刚刚恢复自由的喜悦之中,可以稍微地利用这一点,很快地推进一些改革。
  JOSEPH STANISLAW: Poland decided to do what Bolivia did; to introduce shock therapy; cut back on government expenditure and try and introduce a market system and see if it could work。
  约瑟夫。斯坦利斯诺(Joseph Stanislaw):波兰决定学习###的做法,实行休克疗法,削减政府开支,偿试引进市场体制,看它是否能奏效。
  NARRATOR: Prices almost doubled; and shortages didn't end。 All Balcerowicz could do was chew his nails and wait for the law of supply and demand to kick in。 But then; after a few days; farmers began to bring their produce to market。
  旁白:价格几乎涨了两倍,短缺仍然存在,布拉泽维奇所能做的只是咬着他的指甲,紧张地等待供给需求法则发挥作用。但过了几天后,农民们开始把农产品拿到市场上卖了。
  LESZEK BALCEROWICZ: I was going for a walk; and we were looking at the prices in the shops; the prices of eggs。
  拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz):我出去转了一下,看了看商店里商品的价格,看了看鸡蛋的价格。
  NARRATOR: His aides told him to concentrate on the price of eggs。 If eggs appeared; if eggs got cheaper; the market would be working。 Eggs did appear。 And then the price of eggs began to fall。
  旁白:他的助手们告诉他要关注鸡蛋的价格,假如市面上有鸡蛋卖了,假如鸡蛋的价格便宜了,就说明市场在有效地运作了。市面上果然有鸡蛋卖了,然后鸡蛋的价格开始降下来了。
  LESZEK BALCEROWICZ: And I remember that very important day when the prices of eggs are falling。 This was one of the signals that the program; the stabilization program; is working。
  拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz):我记得鸡蛋的价格开始下降的那天,那是非常重要的一天,这是我们的计划,稳定计划奏效了的一个信号。
   。 想看书来

Chapter 13: Poland in Transition '2:39'
第十三章: 转型中的波兰
  NARRATOR: But reforming state…owned heavy industries would prove a much bigger challenge。
  旁白:但是改革国有重工业被证明是一项更为艰巨的工作。
  LESZEK BALCEROWICZ: Once Poland became free; one of the problems I have to face was a fight about privatization。
  拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz):当波兰实现了自由之后,我不得不面临的一个问题便是私有化的问题。
  DANIEL YERGIN: The big problem was the old industries inherited from the munist past; and there were wrenching problems of unemployment; of making them efficient; keeping them running。 And that's where you saw a lot of the pain。
  丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):问题在于那些从过去共产主义继承下来的老工业,存在着失业、要提高效率、使其正常运转等一系列棘手的问题,这就是那些改革最痛苦的地方。
  NARRATOR: Making overmanned state…owned industries efficient or profitable meant wide…scale layoffs for Poland's blue…collar workers。
  旁白:要使人员过剩的国有企业有效率或者赢利意味着需要大规模地裁减波兰的蓝领工人。
  JAN BIELECKI; Prime Minister; Poland; 1991: When I became the prime minister; the euphoria of transition was almost over。 We had 20;000 strikes; sometimes organized by my former colleagues from Solidarity movement。
  波兰总理(1991)简。比尔尼奇(Jan Bielecki):当我任总理时,转型的蜜月期几乎已经结束了,我们发生了2万次罢工,有时组织者就是我在团结工会运动时一起工作过的同事们。
  NARRATOR: Solidarity began to lose support as workers felt the pain of reform。
  旁白:当工人们感受到了改革的痛苦的时候,团结工会便开始失去支持了。
  JEFFREY SACHS: I was asked to go to some factories; to meet with workers to try to explain what my vision of this might be。
  杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffery Sachs):我被要求去参观一些工厂,去会见一些工人,努力向他们解释我对此的看法。
  FACTORY WORKER: In the beginning we were made to believe that it wouldn't take long for things to get better。
  工厂工人:一开始,我们相信很快情况就会好起来的。
  FACTORY WORKER: Sachs gave us a rosy vision for the future of our economy。
  工厂工人:萨克斯给我们描绘了一个未来经济的瑰丽景象。
  ZYGMUNT WRZODAK; Union Leader; Ursus Tractor Factory: We soon found out that the program imposed on us from the outside most harmed precisely those Poles who had contributed so much to political freedom。
  厄萨斯拖拉机厂(Ursus Tractor Factory)工会主席ZYGMUNT WRZODAK:我们很快发现,那些从外部而来的强加给我们的计划大大伤害的恰恰是那些为波兰的政治自由作出过巨大的贡献的波兰人。
  NARRATOR: But elsewhere; the market was flourishing。 Tens of thousands of small businesses sprung up; and the Polish economy began to boom。
  旁白:但在其他地区,市场得到了繁荣,成千上万的小企业异军突起,波兰经济开始走向繁荣。
  JAN BIELECKI: You suddenly had thousands of people trading the same products in front of the state…owned shop; but at a much lower price。 This is phenomenal; because it shows enormously entrepreneurial drive of the Polish people。 When you have your five minutes; take it。 When the Polish people finally got that opportunity; they took the chance。 They used the chance。
  简。比尔尼奇(Jan Bielecki):突然,你看见在国有商店门前,有成千上万的人正在交易相同的产品,但价格却比商店里低很多。这是了不起的,这表明了波兰人民巨大的创业动力。当你有五分钟时,你一定要抓住这五分钟,当波兰人最终获得了这个机会时,他们抓住了,他们很好地利用了机会。
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Chapter 15: Soviet Free Fall '4:52'
第十五章: 苏维埃的自由滑落
  Onscreen title: Moscow; Soviet Union
  字幕标题:苏联,莫斯科
  NARRATOR: In August 1991; diehard munists staged a coup。 Boris Yeltsin became the voice of democratic resistance。 The coup collapsed。
  Gorbachev survived the plot; but his prestige was destroyed; and the Soviet Union's days were numbered。
  旁白:1991年8月,顽固的共产主义分子发动了一场政变,鲍里斯。叶利钦(Boris Yeltsin)成了民主抵抗力量的代言人,政变失败了。戈尔巴乔夫躲过一劫,但声望扫地,苏联的日子不长了。
  DANIEL YERGIN: The end of December 1991; Mikhail Gorbachev went on Soviet television。 He told his viewers that the Soviet Union would within a few days cease to exist legally。 After seven decades; the Soviet Union was over; it was finished; fade to black。
  丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):1991年12月底,米哈伊。戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)走上电视台,向观众宣布,几天后,苏联在法律上就不存在了,在存在了70年后,苏联走到了尽头,一切都结束了,成为了历史。
  NARRATOR: The president of Russia was Boris Yeltsin。 Unlike Gorbachev; Yeltsin wanted to move fast。 He chose the young reformer Yegor Gaidar as the man to turn Russia into a market economy。
  旁白:俄罗斯总统是鲍里斯。叶利钦(Boris Yeltsin),与戈尔巴乔夫不同,叶利钦想更快地行动。他起用了年轻的改革家尤戈。盖达(Yegor Gaidar),负责把俄罗斯带向市场经济。
  DANIEL YERGIN: For Gaidar it was a shock。 There was no money in the treasury; there was no gold; there was not even enough grain to get through the winter。 It was unclear who was even in charge of the nuclear weapons。 Gaidar later said that it was like flying in an airplane and going into the cockpit and finding no one at the controls。
  丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):盖达深受震动,国库里没有钱,也没有黄金,甚至都没有足够的粮食过冬,连核武器由谁掌管都不清楚。盖达后来说当时就像是你在坐飞机时,到驾驶舱一看却发现没有飞行员。
  YEGOR GAIDAR: It was clear to me that the country was not functioning; the economy was not working; and that if nothing were done and if everyone feared that nothing would be done; it would end in catastrophe; even a famine。
  尤戈。盖达(Yegor Gaidar):我很清楚,国家完全瘫痪了,经济停滞,如果不采取行动,如果每个人都担心无计可施,那就会大祸临头了,甚至会出现饥荒。
  NARRATOR: Gorbachev's halfway reforms had left the economy in a tailspin。 Every essential was in short supply。
  旁白:戈尔巴乔夫的改革半途而废,留下了一个烂摊子,所有的生活必需品供应都处于极端的短缺状况。
  LILIA SHEVTSOVA: We have been queuing every day to get something ……sugar; matches; salt。 The stakes really were very 
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