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制高点-第2部分
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KARL OTTO POHL,1980-1991年德国中央银行总裁:你看到人们用车子来运钞票,因为他们不得不花数十亿德国马克莱买一片面包。
NARRATOR: Hayek; who was working at a statistical research institute; needed 200 pay raises in eight months。 Money was cheaper than wallpaper。 Million…mark notes lit stoves。 Shoes that cost 12 marks in 1913 sold for 32 trillion marks in 1923。 In Hitler's favorite beer keller; a glass of beer cost a billion marks。 Hyperinflation wiped out the savings of the middle class。
旁白:当时正在一个统计学研究机构工作的哈耶克八个月内加了八次薪。钞票比墙纸还便宜;百万马克面值的钞票被用来点炉子。1913年只值12马克的鞋子到了1923年价格已经涨到32万亿马克。在希特勒喜欢的啤酒馆,一杯啤酒要10亿马克。恶性通货膨胀掏空了中产阶级的口袋。
KARL OTTO POHL: And that was one of the reasons for the success of the Nazis; of Hitler。 They got support from these people who lost their fortunes。
KARL OTTO POHL:那还是纳粹党人取得成功的一个原因。他们得到了那些丧失了财富的人的 支持。
NARRATOR: Hayek would always see inflation as an evil that corroded society and undermined democracy。 The fight against inflation became a cornerstone of his economic philosophy。
旁白:哈耶克始终把通货膨胀看成侵蚀社会和破坏民主的恶魔。反对通货膨胀的斗争成为他经济哲学的一个基础。
Onscreen title: New York; The Roaring 1920s
字幕标题:纽约,繁荣的二十年代
DANIEL YERGIN: During the 1920s; while Europe was continuing to suffer the wounds of the first world war; in American cities; at least; it was boom time。 Americans were spending money。 They were dancing。 They were partying。 They were buying cars。 They were buying bathtub gin。 And they were buying stock …… lots of stock。
丹尼尔。尤金:二十年代,欧洲还没有从第一次世界大战造成的创伤中恢复过来,而美国,至少在城市中,则经历了一个繁荣时代。美国人花钱、跳舞、开派对、买车、买私烧锦酒,他们还买股票-大量的股票。
The stock market; the New York Stock Exchange; had bee a national pastime。 The Americans couldn't get enough of it。 And the favorite stock of the day was in these new radio panies。 Radio was like the Internet of the 1920s; an industry that had e from nowhere。 And the number one glamour stock was RCA; which in just a few years went from a dollar and a half a share to 600 a share。 Americans couldn't get enough of it。
股票市场-纽约股票交易所-变成了国家娱乐场所。美国人永不满足地追逐于其中。最受欢迎的股票是那些新的无线电广播公司的股票。无线电就好比是二十年代的因特网-一个新兴行业。最有魔力的股票是RCA,它在短短几年中每股美元涨到了每股600美元。美国人仍不满足。
NARRATOR: It was a classic stock market bubble。 Then; on Black Thursday; October 24; 1929; the bubble burst。 Prices plunged。 The downward spiral proved unstoppable。 Eight hours after the market had closed; the tickertape machines were still tapping out the bad news。 The stock market crash started America's slide into despair。
旁白:这是典型的股票市场泡沫。终于,1929年的10月24日-黑色星期四,泡沫破灭了。股价猛跌,而且下泻之势无法阻止。股票市场关闭八个小时之后,仍然不断有坏消息传出。从股票市场崩溃开始,美国不知不觉陷入了绝望的境地。
SPENCER ECCLES; Salt Lake City Banker: During the '30s here; it was a plete and utter collapse from the people's point of view。 It was despair。 As values and prices spiraled ever onward; downward; it left them with no ability to earn; no ability to repay; no ability to spend; no ability to consume。 Everything went down。 The farm implement seller; the clothing store; the merchant …… everything spiraled downward; and of course with it went the banks。
SPENCER ECCLES,盐湖城银行家:在人们看来,三十年代是完全、彻底的崩溃,令人绝望。由于价格随时间而不断螺旋下降,人们没有能力赚钱,没有能力还债,没有能力花钱,也没有能力消费。破产一桩接一桩-农场用具销售者、服装店、店主。所有东西的价格都在不断下降。当然,与此一致,银行也纷纷破产。
NARRATOR: People panicked。 They rushed to withdraw their hard…earned savings。
旁白:人们惊惶失措,一窝蜂地去挤兑他们辛苦赚来的积蓄。
KENNETH RANDALL; Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; 1964…1970: A run on a bank means lines through the lobby and out the front door and down around the block; people waiting day and night to get up to see if they could withdraw their cash。
KENNETH RANDALL,1964-1970年美国联邦存款保险公司主席:挤兑意味着队伍从大厅排到门外,并且一直延续到街区,人们整天等在那里看能不能把现金提走。
NARRATOR: The millions that could not lost everything。
旁白:数百万人再也不能失去任何东西。
KENNETH RANDALL: If you look at the period of time from '29 on; about half the banks in the United States closed。
KENNETH RANDALL: 那个时期从1929年开始,大约有一半的美国银行倒闭。
NARRATOR: The government failed to halt the downward spiral。 In fact; it made things worse。
旁白:政府没能成功地阻止下泻之势。事实上,它使事情变得更糟糕。
NEWSREEL NARRATOR: Private construction virtually ceases。 Mills and factories shut down。 Railroads e to a virtual standstill。 Millions of Americans …… men; women; children …… wait in the cold on bread lines; in soup kitchens。 Three million Americans are ex…wage earners; unemployed; and the ranks of the unemployed are to soar to 15 million。
新闻片旁白:私人建筑业事实上已经中止;工厂停产;铁路运输陷入事实上的停顿状态。成百万美国人-男人、妇女和孩子-在寒风中等待分配救济品。三百万人失业,这个数字很快飞涨到一千五百万。
Onscreen title: Europe; 1931
字幕标题:欧洲,1931年
NARRATOR: Banks collapsed。 Industry ground to a stop。 Millions were out of work。 In Britain; working men; many of them war veterans; marched the length of the country to petition the government for the simple ";right to work。"; In Italy; Spain; and Germany; they marched to a different drum。 With the failure of capitalism; fascism cast its shadow ever wider。 John Maynard Keynes saw his nightmare ing true。
旁白:银行倒闭;工厂停工;上百万人失业。工人-他们中的许多人是参加过战争的老兵-在全国范围内举行示威游行,向政府要求“工作的权力”。而意大利、西班牙和德国的游行则发展到另一种不同的结果。随着资本主义的失败,法西斯主义扩大了它的影响。John Maynard Keynes看到他的梦魇正在变成事实。
In Cambridge; Keynes set out to save capitalism from itself by writing a book about what caused the Great Depression and what to do about it。 He aimed to rewrite the rules of economics; to see a country's economy as a whole; as a machine that could be managed。
在剑桥,凯恩斯通过撰写一部关于大萧条的原因及应该如何应付它的著作开始从资本主义制度本身寻求拯救之道。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY: Keynes was the real inventor of macroeconomics。 Concepts we take for granted today; like gross domestic product; the level of unemployment; the rate of inflation; all to do with general features of the economy; were invented by him。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY:凯恩斯是宏观经济学的真正创始人。我们今天认为理所当然的一些概念,例如国内生产总值、失业水平、通货膨胀率等所有用来刻画经济总体特性的指标,都是他提出来的。
GEOFFREY HARCOURT: He was writing a book which he thought would revolutionize the way we thought about economic systems。 It would also give us the means to make sure they operated better。
GEOFFREY HARCOURT:他认为他正在撰写的这部著作将使我们考虑经济体系的方式发生革命性的变化。它还将告诉我们如何让经济运行得更好。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY: It was written against the background of not only the collapse of the world economy; but the potential collapse of democratic government。 Hitler became chancellor of Germany in 1933。 Democracy seemed to be losing ground; and with democracy; the system of liberty。 So Keynes had to produce an answer to the Great Depression; or democracy would be swamped by totalitarianism。 ROBERT SKIDELSKY:这部著作的写作背景不仅是世界经济的崩溃,还有潜在的民主政府垮台的危机。1933年希特勒成为德国总理。民主似乎正在退却;与民主一样的还有自由体制。因此凯恩斯必须为大萧条找到一个答案,否则民主就会被极权主义吞没。
Chapter 5: Global Depression '5:26'
第五章:全球性的萧条
Onscreen title: Washington; ; 1933
字幕标题:华盛顿,哥伦比亚特区,1933年
NARRATOR: The new American president; Franklin Delano Roosevelt; was staring economic disaster in the face。 His wife; Eleanor; described Inauguration Day as ";very solemn; and a little terrifying。";
旁白:新的美国总统-Franklin Delano Roosevelt-面对这场经济灾难表现出色。他的夫人-Eleanor-形容就职典礼日“非常庄严,有点令人生畏”。
FRANKLIN DELANO ROOSEVELT; : This great nation will endure as it has endured; will revive and will prosper。 I shall ask the Congress for the one remaining instrument to meet the crisis: broad executive power。
罗斯福,美国总统:我们伟大的国家将象过去一样顽强坚持下去,将会实现复兴和繁荣。我将要求国会给予我广泛的行政权利,这是剩下来的能够对付危机的手段。
NARRATOR: Roosevelt's voice of confidence rallied the nation。
旁白:罗斯福自信的声音令整个国家为之振奋。
He then embarked on a whirlwind program of reform。
然后他着手开始进行旋风式的改革计划。
DANIEL YERGIN: For Roosevelt and the New Deal; it was a war。 They were at war with the Great Depression; and they responded with frenetic activity; relief programs for the unemployed; for the hungry; programs to get people back to work。 They built dams and highways and national parks。 At the same time they instituted a program of regulating capitalism in a way that had never been done before; in order to protect people from what they saw as the recklessness of the unfettered market。
丹尼尔。尤金:对罗斯福和他的新政来说,这是一场战争。他们在和大萧条作战,以狂烈的行动作为回应-救济失业者和挨饿者,让人们重新回到工作岗位上。他们修建水坝、公路和国家公园。同时,他们制定了一项计划,该计划将以前所未有的方式对资本主义进行调控,以保护人们免受自由市场无序发展所带来的伤害。
NARRATOR: Privately; Roosevelt feared the market system had failed; so he created an entire alphabet of new agencies to regulate banks; the stock market; capitalism itself。 New headquarters built for the Interstate merce mission celebrated government regulation; which reined in market forces and curbed capitalism。 Under the New Deal; industry became subject to a host of new rules and regulations。
旁白:私下里,罗斯福对市场体体制的失败感到恐惧,因此他创立了一整套新机构来管理银行、股票市场和资本主义制度本身。为国内运输管理委员会修建的新总部建成,庆祝方式就是发布政府规章。新政实施后,企业要受到一系列新规则和规章制度的约束。
DANIEL YERGIN: And the airline industry was a very good example of that。 You had people go into this business; be very petitive; they'd go bankrupt。 New people would e in; they would go bankrupt。 It was very unstable; so the New Deal stepped in and said; ";We're going to stabilize this industry。 We're going to set the prices that you can charge for tickets。 We're going to tell you what routes you can fly。"; And with that system they eliminated these very vicious cycles of boom and bust in the aviation industry; and in a sense; that was what they were aiming to do throughout the American economy。
丹尼尔。尤金:航空业是一个很好的例子。企业进入这个行业,然后激烈竞争,然后破产;新的企业再进来,然后又破产;整个行业非常不稳定。因此新政插手这个行业,“我们要稳定这个行业,设定机票价格,规定各公司能够经营的航线。”通过这种方法,他们消除了航空业中繁荣-破产的恶性循环。在某种意义上,这也是他们对整个美国经济的目标。
Onscreen title: Cambridge University; 1936
字幕标题:剑桥大学,1936年
NARRATOR: In 1936 John Maynard Keynes finally published his General Theory; a brilliant analysis of how to fight the Depression。 By showing governments that it was possible to manage their economies; Keynes made himself the most influential economist of the age。
旁白:1936年,凯恩斯的《通论》终于出版了,这本书对如何与萧条作斗争进行了才华横溢的分析。凯恩斯告诉各国政府对经济进行管理是可能的,这使他成为那个时代最有影响的经济学家。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY: Keynes's solution to unemployment was for the government to spend the money to restore and maintain full employment。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY:凯恩斯解决失业问题的方案是扩大政府开支以恢复和保持充分就业。
NARRATOR: Governments; said Keynes; should spend against the wind。 In good times they should reduce their spending and build surpluses; in bad times; like the Great Depression; they should step up spending; run deficits; and put purchasing power into the hands of working people。
旁白:凯恩斯认为政府开支应该逆风而行。繁荣时期政府应该削减支出和进行储备;困难时期,比如大萧条时期,政府应该逐步增加支出,实行赤字财政,让劳动者有购买力。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY: He gave people hope that unemployment could be cured without concentration camps。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY:他给了人们希望-失业问题是可以克服的。
NARRATOR: Harvard University became an intellectual bridgehead for Keynes in America。 John Kenneth Galbraith was one of Keynes's leading apostles。
旁白:哈佛大学成为凯恩斯在美国的学术桥头堡。John Kenneth Galbraith是他最主要的追随者。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH; Professor Emeritus; Harvard University: I've said many times I think had something; maybe quite a bit; to do with bringing Keynes across the Atlantic。 I came back to find a whole group of people here who had also read The General Theory; and this was a breath of hope and optimism。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH,哈佛大学荣誉退休教授:我曾多次说过我认为把凯恩斯主义带到大西洋彼岸这件事与我有很大的关系。我回来后发现这儿有许许多多人已经看过《通论》,这是充满希望和乐观主义的。
NARRATOR: Keynes's ideas trickled down from Harvard to Washington; turning the federal government's conventional economic policies upside down。
旁白:凯恩斯的思想从哈佛传到华盛顿,完全改变了联邦政府传统的经济政策。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH: You resisted conservative finance; borrowed money; and hired people across the country; rescuing them from unemployment。 That was the basic essential …… and that you didn't worry about accumulating debt; or; more precisely; you worried about it; but did it anyway。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH:你反对保守的财政政策,借钱来雇佣全国各地的人工作,使他们不致失业。这是基本要点,而你不担心负债的问题,或者更确切地说,你担心负债问题,但无论如何你还是要这样做。
NARRATOR: Keynes's ideas began to gain ground。
讲述者:凯恩斯的思想开始普及。
Chapter 6: Worldwide War '7:00'
第六章:世界大战
Onscreen title: World War II; 1941
字幕标题:第二次世界大战,1941年
NARRATOR: It took a world war for Keynesianism to bee government policy。 As the ; high unemployment ended; and the Depression disappeared。
旁白:经过世界大战,凯恩斯理论变成了政府政策。随着美国政府大举借债并将资金用于备战,高失业率的状况得到改观,大萧条也结束了。
NEWSREEL NARRATOR: 。。。 men and women to make the uniforms; machinists to make the guns and ammunition; auto workers to produce the jeeps and trucks; to build the ships and tanks; civilian soldiers to turn out the fighters; the bombers。
新闻片旁白:……男人和女人做制服;机械师造枪炮弹药;汽车工人生产吉普和卡车,建造舰船和坦克。
NARRATOR: In charge of wartime wage and price controls; John Kenneth Galbraith saw the economy rebound。
旁白:负责战时工资和价格控制的John Kenneth Galbraith看到了经济的反弹。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH: One could not have had a better demonstration of the Keynesian ideas; and I think it's fair to say that as a young Keynesian in Washington; in touch with the other Keynesians there; we all saw that very clearly at the time。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH:这是凯恩斯理论的最好实证。我想可以很公正地说,作为当时在华盛顿的年轻凯恩斯主义者-与那里的其他凯恩斯主义者也有联系,我们那时都清楚地看到了这一实证。
NARRATOR: In a radio broadcast; Keynes expressed his hope that what worked in war would work in peace。
旁白:凯恩斯在无线电广播中表达了他的希望:战时起作用的,在和平时期也起作用。
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: If expenditure on armaments really does cure unemployment; a grand experiment has begun。 Good may e out of evil。 We may learn a trick or two which will e in useful when the day of peace es。
凯恩斯:如果军备支出确实克服了失业问题,那么一个更重大的试验开始了。好事可能来自于邪恶。我们可以从中学到一或两个窍门,这在和平时期迟早用的上。
Onscreen title: London; 1944
字幕标题:伦敦,1944年
NARRATOR: Now teaching at the London School of Economics; Hayek feared that Keynes's brave new world was a big step in the wrong direction。 He attacked the growing consensus by writing The Road to Serfdom。 Sarcastically dedicated to ";socialists of all parties;"; it was a popular success。 There was even a cartoon version of it。
旁白:正在伦敦经济学院教学的哈耶克担心凯恩斯勇敢的新世界是朝着错误方向迈出的一大步。他写了《通往奴役之路》,向主流意见发起了攻击。它对“各政党中的社会主义者”进行讽刺,受到了欢迎。甚至还出现了关于它的漫画。
Its message was simple and direct: Too much government planning means too much government power; and too much government power over the economy destroys freedom and makes men slaves。 For Hayek; central planning was the first step to a totalitarian state。
它的意思很简单也很直接:太多政府计划意味着太多政府权力;政府对经济的权力太大损害自由,而且使人们成为奴隶。在哈耶克看来,中央计划是成为极权主义国家的第一步。
GEOFFREY HARCOURT: Well; Hayek thought that since freedom was an absolute; you must let a petitive system just work itself out。 And if at times that meant there was considerable unemployment; well; that's what you had to put up with
GEOFFREY HARCOURT:哈耶克认为既然自由是绝对的,那么你必须让竞争体系完全依靠自身解决问题。如果有时候这意味着相当多的失业,那也是你所必须忍受的。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY: Hayek always rejected macroeconomics。 He rejected any government intervention during the Great Depression itself; whereas Keynes was an activist。 He said in the long run we're all dead; and in the long run if we allow things to go on without remedy; we get lots of Hitlers; lots of wars; and lots of Stalins。 And who was right?
ROBERT SKIDELSKY:哈耶克一直抵制宏观经济学。大萧条时期他反对任何政府干预,而凯恩斯则是一个激进分子。他说长期来看我们都会死亡,长期来看如果我们允许事情自由发展,就会产生许多希特勒,许多战争和许多斯大林。那么谁是正确的?
NARRATOR: Most people would have agreed with Keynes when he wrote this to Hayek。
旁白:在凯恩斯写这些给哈耶克的时候多数人同意凯恩斯的观点。
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: What we want is not no planning; or even less planning。 We almost certainly want more。
凯恩斯:我们想要的不是没有计划,甚至也不是较少的计划。我们几乎肯定想要更多的计划。
NARRATOR: In the battle of ideas; Hayek was on the losing side。
旁白:在这场思想战争中,哈耶克处于下风。
FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: I had a fairly good reputation as an economic theorist in 1944 when I published The Road to Serfdom; and it was treated even by the academic munity very largely as a malicious effort by a reactionary to destroy high ideals。
哈耶克:1944年出版《通往奴役之路》(The Road to Serfdom)时,作为经济理论家我的声望相当高。《通往奴役之路》(The Road to Serfdom)甚至被一个学术团体在很大程度上作为对崇高理想的恶毒攻击。
Onscreen title: New Hampshire; 1944
字幕标题:新罕布什尔州,1944年
NARRATOR: With the world at war; Keynes traveled to Bretton Woods and a grand resort hotel。 Here; delegates gathered from all over the world to organize the postwar economy。
旁白:世界大战还在进行。凯恩斯来到布雷顿森林,来自世界各地的代表正聚集在这里商讨重建战后经济。
The Bretton Woods Conference created the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund。 They were designed to bring
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